CINCINNATI +7 over Denver
The Marvin Lewis era in the Queen City officially begins Sunday, when the Cincinnati Bengals host the Denver Broncos at Paul Brown Stadium. Lewis, the ninth coach in Cincinnati history, replaces Dick LeBeau at the helm after the squad posted a franchise worst 2-14 record in 2002. The head man had spent the last seven seasons as a defensive coordinator wiz for Baltimore and Washington. Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan hopes to return his team to prominence after it missed the playoffs for the second consecutive season in 2002. Denver has managed just 17 wins over the last two campaigns after winning 11 in 2000. Shanahan has pegged free agent addition QB Jake Plummer as the key to the future of the organization.
"Jake the Snake" Plummer adds a new dimension to the Broncos' offense with his ability to scramble and run if needed. The signal caller's predecessor Brian Griese was more of a statue in the pocket, opening himself up to injury. Plummer doesn't throw with as much accuracy as Griese, though, which could cause problems in the long run. The Arizona State product has thrown for 17,622 yards and 90 touchdowns in his career, but he has also been picked off 114 times. In fact, his career QB rating is a poor 69.1. He's never thrown 20 touchdowns in a season but has had at least that many interceptions in four of his six seasons. Shanahan is obviously hoping that a change of scenery will be what ails Plummer, as he didn't have nearly the amount of weapons in Arizona. The Broncos are very deep at receiver with three top notch options in Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey and young Ashley Lelie. To go along with their excellent group of wideouts, the Broncos have veteran tight end Shannon Sharpe returning. The Broncos will likely run the ball early and often with defending AFC Rookie of the Year Clinton Portis. The Bengals will try to keep the Broncos corralled with an improved defensive line and secondary. Cincinnati signed former Oakland CB Tory James and ex-Titan John Thornton.
Jon Kitna remains under center for the Bengals despite the addition of Heisman Trophy winner and top overall pick Carson Palmer. The Bengals actually had a decent passing game once Kitna got in a groove. The emergence of young wide receiver Chad Johnson has also added some fire to the Cincinnati pass offense. Look for Cincy to try to take advantage of young Broncos' cornerback Lenny Walls, who is a second-year player out of Boston College and was primarily a special teamer in his rookie campaign.
The strength of the Broncos' defense is its excellent linebacking corps led by hard-hitting middle linebacker Al Wilson. Denver is looking for him and his mates to make it tough for the Bengals to get their running game going in this contest. It wasn't so tough for Cincinnat's Corey Dillon last time the teams met as he set an NFL rushing record, going for 278 yards. Much attention has been focused on Denver's defense, and how it must slow down Dillon, but we also can't overlook the success Marvin Lewis has had against the Broncos offense in recent years. His defenses in Baltimore allowed the Broncos just one touchdown in the last eight quarters, including the Ravens' 20-3 wild-card romp in the 2000 playoffs.
The fact that Lewis and the Bengals are getting the Broncos early is a plus as Plummer is still learning Mike Shanahan's complicated offense. The Broncos haven't exactly been sharp in preseason. The first-string offense committed nine false start penalties in nine series, and Plummer has been somewhat inconsistent. We will go on record here as being skeptical of the Broncos' new QB. We don't agree that all of his bad numbers in Arizona can be pinned on his teammates. Plummer never seemed to progress and grow as a quarterback from one year to the next and sometimes makes mistakes that rookies wouldn't make. We simply don't see him as a significant upgrade over Brian Greise.
Marvin Lewis has made the Bengals believers. They actually have hopes of a winning season and the fever is contagious. The Bengals will have an opening-day sellout for the first time since 2000. They have just 8 SRO's in 24 games at the new stadium — but the community is more excited about the team's future than at any time in recent history. Cincinnati appears to be much better prepared heading into a season than at any time in their recent, dreadful history. A three-month offseason strength and conditioning program turned the league's most out-of-shape team into one whose players are leaner and faster. Lewis has turnover over the roster, brining in 20 new players on the 53-man roster since his Jan. 14 hiring.
In looking at some technical factors we have some numbers that also support a play on the Bengals. The Broncos are 0-5 ATS vs. non-divisional teams before facing division foe. Next week, they'll again be on the road, this time in San Deogo. Before facing the Chargers in recent years, the Broncos have been caught looking ahead, going 0-6 ATS, losing to the spread by 12 points a game. Our research indicates that only once in the past 13 NFL seasons has a team been a road favorite in Week 1 prior to playing a divisional foe on the road. In that case, the 49ers got belted in Tampa Bay, 16-6, losing to the spread by 14 points. In the Bengals favor, we note that Week 1 Grass home underdogs have been a super play, going 6-0 ATS last season. Cinci is 3-1 ATS vs. Denver, including their huge 31-21 upset win over Denver as double-digit home doges in 2000. It would not surprise us to see this Bengal team pull off a similar victory. Ultimately, we'll call for Denver to win by a FG, and failing to cover the spread.
PROJECTD FINAL SCORE: DENVER 24 CINCINNATI 21
The Marvin Lewis era in the Queen City officially begins Sunday, when the Cincinnati Bengals host the Denver Broncos at Paul Brown Stadium. Lewis, the ninth coach in Cincinnati history, replaces Dick LeBeau at the helm after the squad posted a franchise worst 2-14 record in 2002. The head man had spent the last seven seasons as a defensive coordinator wiz for Baltimore and Washington. Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan hopes to return his team to prominence after it missed the playoffs for the second consecutive season in 2002. Denver has managed just 17 wins over the last two campaigns after winning 11 in 2000. Shanahan has pegged free agent addition QB Jake Plummer as the key to the future of the organization.
"Jake the Snake" Plummer adds a new dimension to the Broncos' offense with his ability to scramble and run if needed. The signal caller's predecessor Brian Griese was more of a statue in the pocket, opening himself up to injury. Plummer doesn't throw with as much accuracy as Griese, though, which could cause problems in the long run. The Arizona State product has thrown for 17,622 yards and 90 touchdowns in his career, but he has also been picked off 114 times. In fact, his career QB rating is a poor 69.1. He's never thrown 20 touchdowns in a season but has had at least that many interceptions in four of his six seasons. Shanahan is obviously hoping that a change of scenery will be what ails Plummer, as he didn't have nearly the amount of weapons in Arizona. The Broncos are very deep at receiver with three top notch options in Rod Smith, Ed McCaffrey and young Ashley Lelie. To go along with their excellent group of wideouts, the Broncos have veteran tight end Shannon Sharpe returning. The Broncos will likely run the ball early and often with defending AFC Rookie of the Year Clinton Portis. The Bengals will try to keep the Broncos corralled with an improved defensive line and secondary. Cincinnati signed former Oakland CB Tory James and ex-Titan John Thornton.
Jon Kitna remains under center for the Bengals despite the addition of Heisman Trophy winner and top overall pick Carson Palmer. The Bengals actually had a decent passing game once Kitna got in a groove. The emergence of young wide receiver Chad Johnson has also added some fire to the Cincinnati pass offense. Look for Cincy to try to take advantage of young Broncos' cornerback Lenny Walls, who is a second-year player out of Boston College and was primarily a special teamer in his rookie campaign.
The strength of the Broncos' defense is its excellent linebacking corps led by hard-hitting middle linebacker Al Wilson. Denver is looking for him and his mates to make it tough for the Bengals to get their running game going in this contest. It wasn't so tough for Cincinnat's Corey Dillon last time the teams met as he set an NFL rushing record, going for 278 yards. Much attention has been focused on Denver's defense, and how it must slow down Dillon, but we also can't overlook the success Marvin Lewis has had against the Broncos offense in recent years. His defenses in Baltimore allowed the Broncos just one touchdown in the last eight quarters, including the Ravens' 20-3 wild-card romp in the 2000 playoffs.
The fact that Lewis and the Bengals are getting the Broncos early is a plus as Plummer is still learning Mike Shanahan's complicated offense. The Broncos haven't exactly been sharp in preseason. The first-string offense committed nine false start penalties in nine series, and Plummer has been somewhat inconsistent. We will go on record here as being skeptical of the Broncos' new QB. We don't agree that all of his bad numbers in Arizona can be pinned on his teammates. Plummer never seemed to progress and grow as a quarterback from one year to the next and sometimes makes mistakes that rookies wouldn't make. We simply don't see him as a significant upgrade over Brian Greise.
Marvin Lewis has made the Bengals believers. They actually have hopes of a winning season and the fever is contagious. The Bengals will have an opening-day sellout for the first time since 2000. They have just 8 SRO's in 24 games at the new stadium — but the community is more excited about the team's future than at any time in recent history. Cincinnati appears to be much better prepared heading into a season than at any time in their recent, dreadful history. A three-month offseason strength and conditioning program turned the league's most out-of-shape team into one whose players are leaner and faster. Lewis has turnover over the roster, brining in 20 new players on the 53-man roster since his Jan. 14 hiring.
In looking at some technical factors we have some numbers that also support a play on the Bengals. The Broncos are 0-5 ATS vs. non-divisional teams before facing division foe. Next week, they'll again be on the road, this time in San Deogo. Before facing the Chargers in recent years, the Broncos have been caught looking ahead, going 0-6 ATS, losing to the spread by 12 points a game. Our research indicates that only once in the past 13 NFL seasons has a team been a road favorite in Week 1 prior to playing a divisional foe on the road. In that case, the 49ers got belted in Tampa Bay, 16-6, losing to the spread by 14 points. In the Bengals favor, we note that Week 1 Grass home underdogs have been a super play, going 6-0 ATS last season. Cinci is 3-1 ATS vs. Denver, including their huge 31-21 upset win over Denver as double-digit home doges in 2000. It would not surprise us to see this Bengal team pull off a similar victory. Ultimately, we'll call for Denver to win by a FG, and failing to cover the spread.
PROJECTD FINAL SCORE: DENVER 24 CINCINNATI 21
